One of the most anticipated moments for Europe’s top clubs and their fans is the Champions League draw. This edition features a significant format change, eliminating the group stage in favor of eight matches, four at home and four away, generating excitement and many reasons for data-driven analysis.
One of the most commonly used methods to measure the difficulty of a schedule or competitive format is the ELO ranking, developed by Arpad Elo to establish a scoring system in the world of chess. While other providers have their own versions, for several seasons, Driblab has had its own ELO ranking.
Driblab, among other variables, considers Goals, Expected Goals, Expected Threat, Market Value, the team’s ELO before the match, or the ‘Home Field Advantage,’ which measures how much of an advantage playing at home provides depending on the league. With these variables and some others that our model collects, we create a ranking that allows us to establish the difficulty of a team’s schedule throughout a competition.
ELO Champions League 2024/25
Once the eight matches each of the 36 teams in the upcoming edition of the Champions League will play were drawn, we set out to calculate, from our database, the path of each team. In this table, ordered by the highest difficulty of the schedule, we observe that Arne Slot’s Liverpool is the team facing the highest average ELO ranking in those eight matches, four at home and four away. Sparta Prague and PSG are the next clubs with the most ‘fortune’ in the draw.
In the table, we record each team’s ELO and the average ELO of the eight opponents they will face:
On the other hand, Celtic of Glasgow is the club with the lowest difficulty according to our ELO ranking, followed by Bayern and Atlético de Madrid. This ranking aims to objectively parameterize the variables being measured, enabling the system to automate itself as soon as the draw and schedule of a competition are known, adding to other forms of analysis through advanced statistics.
Founded in 2017 as a consultancy, Driblab has driven innovation through data in all aspects of professional football. Thanks to a transversal model, its database collects and models statistics in all directions. From converting matches and videos into bespoke data for training academies to developing cutting-edge technology, helping clubs, federations and representative agencies in talent scouting and transfer markets. Driblab’s smart data is used by clubs all over the world, with success stories such as Dinamo Zagreb, Real Betis and Girondins Bordeaux among others. Here you can find out more about how we work and what we offer.
