This article does not need much explanation as it’s just a continuation of the one we published last week on the early season statistical leaders. Given now we’ve got at least 5 games played in most of the competitions we can shift the focus to the teams (and we will be doing so more often) and not only on the individual performances. At this time of the year, stats can be a little bit deceiving on their surface but they could also be hinting at some soon-to-be problems for a number of teams.
Shall we start?
1 – Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA)
Last season under Toppmoller, Eintracht had already put up under-average PPDA numbers. With 4 matchdays gone already, Eintracht have double down on their passive approach as the numbers show. They are also the 4th teams with the least passes per shot. Toppmoller wants his team to wait and quickly take their chances. With three wins on the bound, Eintracht rank 4th in the Bundesliga.
On the other side of the spectrum, Dundee FC have gone from allowing 18 passes per defensive action to just 5.62. Probably the truth lies in between but what a change it has been: they would rank 1st in the top 5 leagues in terms of directness, related to how much they play forward, and distance per possession. They want to regain the ball as quickly as possible to play forward and direct as soon as possible.
2 – Directness and Distance per Possession
Both directness and distance per possession are passing metrics that help us understand what times do when they’ve got the ball. On the one hand we’ve got the less direct teams, who mostly playing intricate football. They key for these teams is to be compact in every phase of their passing game. They travel together as teams. On the other side we’ve got the more direct sides, those that don’t want to risk the ball in their own and prefer to be quite vertical in comparison.
As shown in the graph, playing a lot of passes in every possession does not always mean the same. Take the Liverpool example: they like to combine and control the game but once the space has been created they often choose to make direct, vertical and usually long passes. On contrast, Southampton are a side that enjoy when being pressed. They play short passes to beat the press but then they keep connecting short passes while advancing upfield.
3 – xG per Shot
37-year-old Nani leads the line for Estrela Amadora, winless in each of their five games. However, even if the numbers suggest otherwise, they haven’t been that bad in front of goal. They’ve scored three goals from 3.0 xG. The cause for concern here is that they have done so while taking 58 shots! Amadora’s average of 11.6 shots per game means they have taken the 5th most shots in Primeira Liga. Amadora’s lack of ability to create good opportunities is haunting them.
Meanwhile, Eintracht are taking shots worth 0.15 xG, so on average their shots have a 15% chance of being scored. On par with Brentford. However, Thomas Frank’s side have 7 goals from 7 xG while taking 47 shots. Eintracht have scored 6 goals from 7.7 xG and 50 shots. The difference here lies on the number of matches played. Even if Eintracht are actually underperforming in front of goal, the’ve only played four games compared to Brentford’s five, making their 7.7 xG generated even more significant.
4 – xG per Shot Conceded
We’ve talked about generating chances. What about conceding chances?
Everton’s 0.15 xG per shot conceded on one hand and Santa Clara’s 0.5 xG on the other. The Everton case is deeply problematic for Sean Dyche. Last season they averaged 0.11 xG per shot allowed. Teams needed to generate 1.43 xG to score a non-penalty goal past Everton. This season that number has gone down to 0.67. Defensively fragile is the last thing you would want to call a Sean Dyche team.
Santa Clara have conceded the 4th lowest number of goals per game on this season’s Primeira Liga and have allowed the 4th lowest number of shots. this looks like a team that can be called defensively sound.
5 – xG generated via Set Piece
If we look beyond Hatayspor going from 0.37 xG conceded from set piece per game to 0.97 this season, we’ll find RB Leipzig allowing 49% of their total xG against come from dead-ball situations (not considering penalties). 0.82 xG from set piece is waaay too much for a team that wants to compete for major honours. Last season they ended with a below-average number of 0.34 xG conceded via set piece per game. Still not good enough.
Nevertheless, they could take example from their fellow Bundesliga rivals and defending champions Bayer Leverkusen, who have generated this season an average of 1.03 xG from set pieces. That hardly-sustainable number would probably regress to the mean as the season goes on but it’s still a lesson for those aspirants. As Arsenal have shown, you are only as good as your set-pieces.
6 – Average age
This graph doesn’t need much explanation: Strasbourg has fielded the youngest XIs on average this season. Their average age of Strasbourg’s summer transfers incomings was 21.4 and the average age of the team’s summer transfer outgoings was 28.3. There you go.
Coincidentally, both Portugal’s Primeira Liga and Belgium’s Pro League are two of the leagues that put the most emphasis on playing the youth so it’s no surprise seen two teams of each of these leagues in the table.
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