Such is the footballing and economic power of Brazilian clubs in South America that two teams from Brazil contesting the Copa Libertadores final is no longer remarkable news.
It's actually become the norm: four of the last six continental finals have featured two Brazilian sides. Including this year’s edition, a Brazilian club will lift the trophy for the seventh consecutive time. Something never seen before in South America.
That’s the outside landscape. On the pitch, Palmeiras vs. Flamengo offers plenty of interesting debates, both collectively and individually. They are the two best teams on the continent and, while meeting in the final, they are also battling head-to-head for the 2025 Brasileiro title.
Flamengo lead the way in Brazil, coached by Filipe Luis, the former Atlético de Madrid left-back, among others. His possession-based Flamengo side dominates games through effective build-up mechanisms, and presses high to regain control as quickly as possible.
Compared with the other 19 teams in the league, Flamengo average the highest possession share (61.8%) and rely on elaborated passing sequences (five passes per possession, more than any other club). Filipe Luis’ team look to create danger patiently, arriving with clarity in the final third: they are the third team in Brazil in completed passes per shot (37.8 passes per attempt).
Out of possession, the Mengão are the most high-pressing team in the Brasileirao. They are coached to be proactive out of possession, constantly trying to force turnovers. 53% of their defensive actions happen high up the pitch — more than 40 metres from their own goal. The highest proportion in the league. Their press is often positioned higher than most but it's also very aggresive and intense: no one recovers the ball more often in the opposition half (15.5 per match) nor generates more dangerous recoveries — those within the last 40 metres (6.82 per match).
Palmeiras, meanwhile, are a more rugged, more pasive side, without such an elaborate attacking structure. Manager Abel Ferreira has no problem setting up deep-defending game plans and attacking with speed.
In open play, Palmeiras have conceded the fewest goals in the Brasileiro (16) and are second — behind Flamengo — in shots allowed per match. Set pieces (nine goals conceded, three more than the league average) and individual mistakes (six penalties conceded) are the main defensive concerns for the Verdão. Small details that can decide a final.
In terms of style, Palmeiras’ Libertadores version shows some notable adjustments compared to their domestic one. Their defensive approach changes drastically: they defend deeper, press less, and as a consequence concede more shots — but from low-quality positions (0.06 xG per shot, the best figure among the 32 participants).
With the ball, we know they are a vertical team, rarely spending long in the final third and attacking the box at high speed. To enable this, Palmeiras attempt a long ball every 8.79 passes. Out of the 32 Libertadores teams, only three attempt long balls more frequently.
This verticality suits them in the more open Libertadores environment. Their 2.17 non-penalty goals per match are the second-best in the tournament. Unlike Flamengo — who drop from 1.44 xG in the league to 1.37 in the Libertadores — Palmeiras increase their offensive output from 1.32 xG to 1.63 xG (the third-best in the competition). Their shots, coming from more open situations, like transitional situations, rise from 0.09 xG to 0.11 xG in average value.
The script of the final aligns with each team’s nature: Flamengo will try to break down a medium-deep block — unlikely to be very deep — while Palmeiras will look to capitalise on the space between the lines and balls played in behind Flamengo’s defence.
Flamengo's Players To Watch
Now that we have an idea of how the match might unfold, let’s discuss the protagonists. Starting with the league leaders, Flamengo. Which players could decide the final for the Mengão?
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In a context where Flamengo will undoubtedly take the initiative, their centre-backs will be crucial in breaking down the opposition block. Even if Palmeiras mix their most-common medium-to-low block with high press spells. If the defenders can generate advantages in the first phase through their passing, Flamengo will be able to turn Palmeiras and attack with more space.
Mengao's most frequently used route to goal is finding the wingers in 1v1 situations by working the ball out wide cleanly. However, that pattern can be predictable and countered by double-marking the wingers. This is why Flamengo’s centre-backs should mix their often flawless wide progression with line-breaking passes through the middle, adding much-needed unpredictability.
Léo Pereira is among the three best centre-backs in Brazil as of today, and Flamengo will need him at his best. This season he is averaging 10.1 passes under pressure (4th-highest in the league) with a 94% success rate. He has also completed more line-breaking through balls — those that break the defensive line — than anyone in the Brasileiro (41). If Palmeiras alternate between deep and high blocks, Pereira’s long ball behind the defence could be a vital weapon, as well as his composure under pressure.
Once Flamengo’s build-up reaches higher zones — creation, acceleration, finishing — the reins fall to one of the greatest foreign players in the league’s history.
At 31, Giorgian De Arrascaeta is a club legend. Twice Brazilian champion, twice continental champion, with a long list of collective honours. He is having the best statistical season of his career: 17 league goals and 11 assists, plus two more in the Libertadores.
De Arrascaeta is the reference point for Flamengo’s attacks. Everyone looks for him. Only two central midfielders out of 149 who have played more than 450 minutes in the league receive more progressive passes (13.1). And he also receives in dangerous areas: he is 12th among midfielders in progressive passes received in the final third.
Using Arrigo, we can also see that he receives 5.93 passes in space (passes received in the opposition half with no defender within five metres towards goal). The second-highest among league midfielders.
If the Uruguayan can receive in these areas, especially in space, he will be decisive: he needs very little to create danger. His 1.52 open-play chances created per match are only surpassed by Jhon Arias, who joined Wolves in the Premier League this summer. No one betters his 0.23 xA per match, and no one participates in more sequences that end in a goal (7.46 per match).
Even though they will need to mix play a little more, we’ve mentioned how central the winger route is for Flamengo. The player who gives that route its bite is Samu Lino.
After several seasons in Spain of varying success, Samu Lino returned to Brazil this year and has become one of Flamengo’s most important footballers. He fits exactly what Filipe Luis needs from a winger: direct, skilful, fast.
Had our latest article focused on South America, we would undoubtedly have highlighted Lino. He is one of those wingers who, despite limited scoring output, have an outsized impact on their team.
No other wide player in the league contributes as much to xG Build-Up (0.75 xG excluding actions where he shoots or assists). He also participates in an average of 1.12 sequences that end in a goal per match and 7.63 that end in a shot. In the former, he ranks third; in the latter, no winger participates in more.
Palmeiras' Players To Watch
The Verdão reach the final being effectively out of the league title race, and their recent form has not been the best — they haven’t won since November 7. Yet something inside me is pushing me to give them the edge. Maybe because in both head-to-head meetings this season, Palmeiras outperformed Flamengo on non-penalty xG. If Palmeiras are to spring a surprise, which players could make the difference?
For the Verdao, we must focus on their two main threats, who work in tandem: Vitor Roque and José Manuel López. This is like your old-school, classicstriker partnership. López, the taller, imposing figure, and Roque, the shorter, non-stop runner.
It’s hard to believe Vitor Roque only spent a year and a half in Europe, and even harder to accept that he is still just 20. I have no doubt he will try again soon, but he needed a season like this one. He has recovered the confidence that seemed lost.
Among all strikers in the Brasileiro, Roque averages the second-highest number of touches in the box per match (6.03), and only five forwards shoot more frequently (2.76 shots). Fifty-two percent of his shots hit the target, and one in every five becomes a goal.
Such is his form that he has turned 11.3 xG into 14.4 xG on target — meaning his shot execution increases the probability of scoring beyond what the locations alone would suggest.
Confidence is the right word. Beyond goals, he is averaging 2.73 successful dribbles per match, winning plenty of fouls, and competing fiercely in duels. He is on fire.
If Vitor Roque was to be Batman, José Manuel López would be Robin: he does everything needed to allow Roque to shine. Great back-to-goal play, wins lots of aerial duels, and allows Palmeiras to play their coach's favoured vertical attacks. He is the third striker with most duels contested in the league and the fifth most efficient in the air.
We’ve seen their dynamic work many times. A clear example is this goal against River Plate in the Libertadores knockouts.
El Flaco López receives with his back to goal and turns. Even though Roque is looking the other way, López plays the ball into the space behind the defence. Roque, knowing exactly what his teammate is about to do, spins and sprints without needing to look.
The Brazilian uses his speed to reach the ball, takes two touches, and finishe across the keeper to make it 0–2.
Vitor Roque is a very incisive striker and is constantly making runs to offer options to his teammates. He covers 5.33% of his total distance at sprinting speed, the second-highest percentage among forwards in the league. In addition, his average top speed of 35.6 km/h is the sixth-highest figure in the championship.
Given Palmeiras’ vertical play, Flamengo will need to protect their turnovers and be extremely careful with López’s receptions — whether to hold the ball or flick it — and with Roque’s aggressive movement and pace, lethal in open space.
The two best teams in South America meet again in an all-Brazilian final. With Driblab and its extensive set of tools, we have tried to analyse how both teams play, which players could decide the match, and in what ways.
