How much is it worth to make an assist?

Category: Player Analysis

Is an actual assist more valuable in measuring the talent of a passer or the model that gives value to the quality of the pass regardless of the outcome?

Published:16/08/2022

A recurring debate that places statistics at the centre is the one that undervalues its capacity for analysis in relation to what happens in reality. There is the idea that advanced statistics cannot explain certain situations in football because they are so unpredictable and that, furthermore, the value that matters is that of the goal, the assist and the shot, as if only the statistics that count prevail and not those that can analyse.

Jonathan Northcroft, journalist of ‘The Sunday Times‘, wondered this past Sunday what is the real value of an assist if this statistic in the world of football has been inherited from American sports that only take into account the value and not its context, in relation to the fact that an assist can be a pass that does not offer too much advantage but seconds later becomes a goal and, therefore, an assist.

At Driblab we think that the value (of an action and/or great pass) should not be measured only by the result (goal assist) but by the context that allows that result, even if it does not happen, to have the possibility of happening thanks to what was created by the potential assistant. In the report by ‘The Times’, Salvador Carmona, CEO of Driblab, pointed out some reasons for this.

“Assists is a simple concept, good for the fans, but something that really wouldn’t give that much value when analysing a potential signing. The reality is that if you have big assist numbers you can’t be a bad player. But not having great assist numbers doesn’t make you a bad assist man. You may have bad teammates. Think of Cesc Fabregas. One year he made 18 assists for Chelsea and the next year it was only seven, but his expected assists were similar to the previous year. The difference was that Chelsea had swapped Diego Costa for Álvaro Morata”.

To understand this, a metric that gives value to the quality of the assist even if it doesn’t end in a goal makes much more sense for spotting players and understanding the potential of their talent. If we look at the top assists in Europe we see that they are all great players but if we look at those who had the best numbers in ‘Expected Assists’ (xA), we find lesser known players to look out for. And this happens both in a big league and in a much less media league where many young players are looking for a better opportunity.

We are Driblab, a consultancy specialized in the statistical analysis of players and teams; our work is focused on advising and minimizing risk in professional football decision-making in areas related to talent detection and footballer evaluations. Our database has more than 200,000 players from more than 180 competitions, covering information from all over the world. Here you can learn more about how we work and what we offer.

Autor: Alejandro Arroyo
For Player Analysis we also recommend you:

New faces: 5 international debuts from the September break

After a full summer of international tournaments, the national teams have wanted to freshen up their squads a bit. In doing so, a few players have been handed their first caps. Here we write about the five more interesting ones.

Manuel Neuer, the goalkeeper of all times

Manuel Neuer, a goalkeeper of all times

Parametric Search: finding box crashing, goalscoring midfielders

Goal-scoring midfielders have become a prized commodity in today’s market. Here is a list of young players ranging from goal-focused midfielders to all-rounders, but all of them have the ability to sneak into the box and find shooting situations.

Accurate and progressive: the kings of passing

The three best midfielders in Europe are vastly superior to the rest. There is no data that eludes them.

Who are the Best Pressing Players in the Most Intense League?

Who presses more effectively in the Bundesliga 23/24?

How good is the forward I’m looking for at pressing and defending?

We explain how we can model our data and visualizations to understand how much and with what success the center forward we are looking for defends and works off the ball.

Joao Neves: the data makes clear his incredible impact

What does the data say about one of the most surprising midfielders of the moment? Perhaps a lot more than you expect.

‘xG Build up 5 passes’: adjusting (further) the value of players in each possession

We discover the best midfielders in possessions that generate ‘expected goals’ by measuring only the five passes prior to the last pass.

Endrick 2024: understanding his near future with data

We analyse Endrick’s rapid evolution: new areas of the field, new roles and new plays. Endrick 2024 is starting to come into view.

Expected threat open play ‘in team’: the truly irreplaceable players

We highlight the top 20 players who are most indispensable to their teams in generating danger.

Driblab

Información corporativa

Somos una empresa con sede en Madrid fundada en 2017 por Salvador Carmona y Cristian Coré Ramiro. Desde nuestros inicios nuestro trabajo se ha centrado en el análisis estadístico de datos para ayudar a los clubes en la planificación deportiva. Somos una consultora big data que ofrece servicios personalizados para cada cliente y defiende un modelo de gestión mixto y una comunicación constante para acompañar el día a día de las instituciones. Nuestro punto fuerte es la más amplia cobertura disponible en número de torneos profesionales y juveniles. Para más detalles, póngase en contacto con nosotros.

Colaboramos con:

           

Hemos aparecido en: