‘Predictions 2024’: Top-6 European leagues

Category: Team Analysis

We discovered the odds of qualification in the six major leagues, using a multitude of criteria to shape our prediction model.

Published:18/01/2024

Predictions are made to be broken, but they provide a basis for understanding the probabilities of each team achieving their goals, exceeding them, or ending up in a particular position. At the midpoint of the season, Driblab has its own predictive model that establishes classification probabilities based on a variety of criteria.

With half the season ahead, the predictions are as follows:

Premier League 2023/22

Manchester City would win the Premier League again. In the table below, sorted by the final points prediction, Guardiola’s team would lift the title once more. It hasn’t been a particularly brilliant year for the reigning treble champion, conceding more goals and suffering more defeats. However, their endurance, resilience, quality, and offensive versatility continue to give them better odds than the rest. These odds would secure a Champions League spot for Aston Villa, who would play in the Champions League for the first time in their history and for the third time in total after their titles in 1982 and 1983. The relegation positions would remain unchanged.

LaLiga 2023/24

Our model predicts that Real Madrid will step up and surpass the 90-point barrier. Taking into account various performance variables, chance creation, effectiveness in both penalty areas, fixture difficulty, and many others, the championship’s trend and the performance of its rivals position Real Madrid to regain the national title. However, Girona would come in 2nd and currently has a 90% chance of finishing in the Champions League spots. The race for the fourth place is noteworthy, where Athletic Club could break their own ceiling and surpass Atlético or Barcelona. Sevilla has almost a 20% chance of relegation.

Bundesliga 2023/24

One of the most interesting battles until the last match will be between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern’s ten consecutive titles, Harry Kane’s extraordinary goal-scoring frequency, and their experience in winning titles make them the predicted champions. Boniface’s injury could cost Bayer Leverkusen (still undefeated) the title, but our model predicts a close contest at the top. Union Berlin, after a tough year, would secure safety with 34 points.

Serie A 2023/24

In 85% of cases, Inter Milan would retain the title. Their dominance could be challenged by the resurgence of Juventus. Overall, probability models place Serie A among the leagues with fewer surprises. Milan would reach the Champions League, and Empoli and Salernitana face a tough battle to avoid relegation based on their squad potential and current point-scoring pace in relation to their effectiveness in both penalty areas.

Ligue 1 2023/24

In 99.4% of cases, PSG would win Ligue 1 23/24. The gradual decline of Nice has left PSG with a clear path once again. The battle for European competitions remains wide open, with similar prediction percentages for Nice, Monaco, Brest, or Lille. Relegation is also open and challenging to predict.

Primeira Liga 2023/24

The most evenly contested title race among the top six European leagues is in the Portuguese league. It’s challenging to determine the current champion. The model gives equal probabilities to Sporting and Benfica. Schmidt’s team has seen a drop in performance, while Amorim’s team has regained rhythm and consistency, making them slightly favored. The duel between them could make the difference in the championship battle. As always, the relegation battle remains wide open due to the concentration of teams within five or six points of each other.

Founded in 2017 as a consultancy, Driblab has driven innovation through data in all aspects of professional football. Thanks to a transversal model, its database collects and models statistics in all directions. From converting matches and videos into bespoke data for training academies to developing cutting-edge technology, helping clubs, federations and representative agencies in talent scouting and transfer markets. Driblab’s smart data is used by clubs all over the world, with success stories such as Dinamo Zagreb, Real Betis and Girondins Bordeaux among others. Here you can find out more about how we work and what we offer.

Autor: Alejandro Arroyo
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Somos una empresa con sede en Madrid fundada en 2017 por Salvador Carmona y Cristian Coré Ramiro. Desde nuestros inicios nuestro trabajo se ha centrado en el análisis estadístico de datos para ayudar a los clubes en la planificación deportiva. Somos una consultora big data que ofrece servicios personalizados para cada cliente y defiende un modelo de gestión mixto y una comunicación constante para acompañar el día a día de las instituciones. Nuestro punto fuerte es la más amplia cobertura disponible en número de torneos profesionales y juveniles. Para más detalles, póngase en contacto con nosotros.

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