‘Predictions’: Relegation and european competitions

Category: Team Analysis

How likely is each team to be relegated or qualify for European competition?

Published:18/05/2023

Four, three or two rounds of matches remain to bring the season to an end in the five major European leagues. Many teams have nothing at stake and are rushing through the last few rounds with complete peace of mind, but many others are playing to qualify for European competition (Conference League, Europa League, Champions League) or what is even more important, the salvation of the category.

Driblab has automated in its database and scouting platform its own predictive probability model, giving percentages to each team that can achieve a goal in the remainder of the season, based on the difficulty of the calendar or their performance during the season among other variables. For this reason, we wanted to visualise the chances of all these teams in the five main European leagues.

LA LIGA 2022/23

With the title already decided and the first three positions assured of a place in the Champions League, the fight for Europe focuses on Betis, Villarreal and Real Sociedad. Girona would only have a 3% chance of reaching the Conference League. The final relegation place leaves Valladolid more likely to be relegated despite taking a point from Getafe.

PREMIER LEAGUE 2022/23

The fight for Europe in the Premier League underlines the enormous competitiveness of so many projects seeking a new status in the best league of the moment. The battle for fourth place has become a three-team affair following Liverpool’s seven straight wins. Brighton are dreaming of a Europa League place. At the bottom, Leeds and Leicester are struggling to stay in Premier League.

LIGUE 1 2022/23

In France, a lot of things have already been decided and those that remain to be decided do not give much hope to those who are behind in the fight. Nantes and Auxerre are equally likely to be relegated.

SERIE A 2022/23

In Serie A, with the title decided, the Champions League and Europa League places are extremely tight. Inter, after five wins in a row, have turned the predictions upside down. They currently have a 50% chance of playing in the Champions League, having also reached the final of this year’s edition.

BUNDESLIGA 2022/23

Finally, in the Bundesliga, our model gives Freiburg very little chance of pipping Union Berlin to the Bundesliga title, while Dortmund have a 29% chance of winning a title they were very close to with five games to go.

Founded in 2017 as a consultancy, Driblab has driven innovation through data across all aspects of professional football. Thanks to a transversal model, its database collects and models statistics in all directions. From converting matches and videos into bespoke data for training academies to developing cutting-edge technology, helping clubs, federations and representative agencies in talent scouting and transfer markets. With customisable software and consultancy designs and services, Driblab’s intelligent data is used by clubs around the world, with success stories such as Dinamo Zagreb, Real Betis or Girondins de Bordeaux. Here you can learn more about how we work and what we offer.

Autor: Alejandro Arroyo
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