Südtirol with ‘Sky Sport Italia’: the great statistical anomaly of the year

Category: Team Analysis

One of the stories of the season in Europe’s second divisions is happening in Bolzano, in the Trentino-Alto Adige region.


One of the stories of the season in Europe’s second divisions is happening in Bolzano, in the Trentino-Alto Adige region. There, a newly promoted Serie C side has made the playoff for promotion to Serie A thanks to what can be called a statistical anomaly. Their style of play, their derived performances and their efficiency in certain metrics explain it.

It is unusual for certain performances over a prolonged period of time not to be corrected over the course of a season. If a team is used to taking too many shots per game and taking too few shots on goal game after game, the likelihood of long-term success is very low. A good summary is provided by the Expected Points (xP) metric. What has happened over 38 rounds with Südtirol?

Südtirol will play in the promotion playoff as the team with the biggest difference in favour between points (58) and Expected Points (44.4). That is, according to their performance in different metrics over the course of the matches, they should have scored 44, but they have scored 58:

  • They are 15th in non-penalty goals (33).
  • They are 20th in Expected Goals (32)
  • Is the 19th team in Expected Goals open play (19.9)
  • 20th in Shots per game (9.4) and 18th in Shots on Goal (3.2)
  • 20th in Expected Assists per 90′ (0.77)
  • 20th in Possession % (40%)
  • 20th team in Pressing (23.84 PPDA)
  • 20th team in Expected Threat (xT), with 1.65 per 90′.
  • 20th team in Shots Conceded (521 total, 13.7 per 90′)

Their style of play defines them as the team with the fewest passes per possession, the most distance travelled per possession and one of the four most vertical teams. Both at home and away, their main mission is to defend very close to their goalkeeper, ensuring that scoring chances are few and far between and that Giacomo Poluzzi is one of the main protagonists.

In the latest edition of Sky Sport’s ‘Football Analyst’ programme, they reflected on the extraordinary anomaly that is Sudtirol, who will try to get promoted to Serie A in the next few days, playing a one-off match against Cagliari.

Earlier this season, Südtirol drew at home to Cagliari suffering 20 shots and 3.0 Expected Goals. And it matters little that all this is so. The data reflects reality but does not judge it. Football is a game where you play it a thousand ways and find success in seemingly unsuspected ways.

Founded in 2017 as a consultancy, Driblab has driven innovation through data in all aspects of professional football. Thanks to a transversal model, its database collects and models statistics in all directions. From converting matches and videos into bespoke data for training academies to developing cutting-edge technology, helping clubs, federations and representative agencies in talent scouting and transfer markets. Driblab’s smart data is used by clubs all over the world, with success stories such as Dinamo Zagreb, Real Betis and Girondins Bordeaux among others. Here you can find out more about how we work and what we offer.

Autor: Alejandro Arroyo
For Team Analysis we also recommend you:

Jan Oblak, the last great goalkeeper to improve his ball-playing

We look at how Atlético de Madrid and Jan Oblak have changed the way they play, getting the Slovenian more involved and more accurate with his feet.

The new injury time and its impact on the game

How is the new rule related to injury time affecting the new rule? We take a closer look thanks to our database.

Five MLS U-20 talents to watch closely

We uncover five MLS U-20 talents with different potentials to keep a close eye on in the upcoming transfer markets.

Xabi Alonso and his new Leverkusen

We analyse Bayer Leverkusen’s shocking change of style in Xabi Alonso’s second year as the team’s coach.

The importance of own half passes

Passing in one’s own half has become more and more frequent or more and more important. We take a closer look at this trend with facts and ideas.

Huddersfield Town A.F.C and Driblab sign partnership agreement

Huddersfield Town A.F.C and Driblab sign partnership agreement

Fantastic (very young) goalkeepers and where to find them

We go to those places with the greatest capacity to develop goalkeepers of great stature and technical potential to find U21 goalkeepers.

Brighton 23/24: How far away is the Champions League?

Brighton have started the season by far surpassing their own standards of play and doubling in many statistics and metrics the best teams in the Premier League.

SPVGG Greuther Fürth and Driblab signs partnership agreement.

SPVGG Greuther Fürth and Driblab signs partnership agreement.

Left-footed centre-backs for back three

We are looking for left-footed centre-backs with great ball handling, a profile that is increasingly in demand due to the proliferation of back three systems.


Información corporativa

Somos una empresa con sede en Madrid fundada en 2017 por Salvador Carmona y Cristian Coré Ramiro. Desde nuestros inicios nuestro trabajo se ha centrado en el análisis estadístico de datos para ayudar a los clubes en la planificación deportiva. Somos una consultora big data que ofrece servicios personalizados para cada cliente y defiende un modelo de gestión mixto y una comunicación constante para acompañar el día a día de las instituciones. Nuestro punto fuerte es la más amplia cobertura disponible en número de torneos profesionales y juveniles. Para más detalles, póngase en contacto con nosotros.

Colaboramos con:


Hemos aparecido en: