The great evolution of football: the average shot distance

Average shot distance is one of the great evolutions in football. We look at what has happened to make it possible to shoot from closer and closer range.

Published:01/12/2022

There is no greater desire for statistical science than to be able to explain something complex and long-lasting in time with a single image. To be able to generate an immediate impact with a visualisation that condenses a story and its concept(s) in a second. And that is what the world of basketball has achieved with its particular revolution: the gradual and unstoppable decline of the average shot in the NBA beyond the three-point line, perfectly explained in a single image or evolutionary gif year by year, which shows how the so-called mid-range has become deserted in favour of the three-point shot.

The Evolution of the NBA

This revolution proved the theory that the degree of risk and reward, given the rules of the game -in the mid-90s the 3-point line went from 7.23m to 6.75m from the hoop- and the physical evolution of the players -any player over 2.00m could go outside to shoot three-pointers-, more than compensated even if the shooting distance was much greater. In this way, the average shooting positions of each season were moving away from each other, consummating the so-called revolution of the offensive space: anyone was capable of shooting and scoring from three, obtaining greater rewards than trying from mid-range.

Every sport is different, with its own game dynamics, rules and developments. In football, its theoretical revolution is beginning to be measured as advanced statistics begin to collect over more seasons and penetrate clubs for game analysis. In 2019, Driblab looks at the average shot distance in the five major European leagues between 2014 and 2019. On the brink of three years since that analysis, we set out to update that data and find that what we concluded has been borne out: that getting close to goal is potentially more rewarding than going wide, and that this was the case across all leagues.

In this first table we show the average distance of shots from 2014 to 2021 -last season-, where we can see how shots have been getting progressively closer. The evolution of the game has focused on the sophisticated organisation of attacks, involving a large number of players to create spaces where the opposition tries to close them down. As we can see in the graph, in each championship the trend has certified that getting closer to the goal is more profitable.

And what about shots from inside the box? If we look at the percentage of shots from inside the box in the last three World Cups, the last two European Championships and the last five editions of the Champions League, the result is absolutely enlightening. The evolution of the game has one of its most striking consequences in the approach to shooting, where the probability of scoring goals has clearly increased, leaving behind long-range shots and increasing the quantity of passes thanks to the increasingly sophisticated organisation of teams.

We are Driblab, a consultancy specialized in the statistical analysis of players and teams; our work is focused on advising and minimizing risk in professional football decision-making in areas related to talent detection and footballer evaluations. Our database has more than 200,000 players from more than 180 competitions, covering information from all over the world. Here you can learn more about how we work and what we offer.

Autor: Alejandro Arroyo
For Team Analysis | Team Analysis we also recommend you:

Balkan U-20 talent not to be missed

Balkan U-20 talent not to be missed

No one misses more clear chances than… Erling Haaland.

It's no coincidence that the players who miss the clearest chances are often the ones who score the most goals. It makes sense because their teams allow them to face higher-value chances more frequently, and therefore easier to convert. But this 2023-24 season is...

Driblab continues its business growth with the arrival of new key members

Driblab continues its growth with the arrival of new profiles

Club Atlético Peñarol and Driblab signs partnership agreement

Club Atlético Peñarol and Driblab signs partnership agreement

Driblab and MARCA: ‘Tactical Fouls’ and how to find them with data

In our latest collaboration with MARCA, we tried to discover which teams have a greater tendency to commit tactical fouls in a premeditated way.

Offensive and physical perfomance in second halves: Who attacks and presses more after halftime?

Among other functionalities, statistics serve to contrast, reinforce, or deny the sensations that, as analysts, one may have of a specific reality. It is very likely that our perception, especially in a game as peculiar and random as football, may tell us that a...

The data reflecting Bayern’s evolution

Entre muchos factores que explican sus dudas, ¿era el Bayern un club para Tuchel?¿Era Tuchel el entrenador idóneo para el Bayern?

‘Style metrics’: 10+ pass sequences per 90′

We discover which teams complete the most +10 pass sequences in each match and which complete the least in the five major leagues, an interesting style metric for analysis.

Scouting beyond the second divisions: on-demand data and coverage

Four of Driblab’s last eight clients are in the lower to second divisions. This is how we help clubs all over the world with data and scouting.

On comebacks and goals after the 90th minute

For some time now, we have been incorporating additional valuable information into all our models and advanced statistical metrics, regarding the competitive dynamics of each team. We unveil which teams make comebacks more often and which score more goals in the final stretches.

Driblab

Información corporativa

Somos una empresa con sede en Madrid fundada en 2017 por Salvador Carmona y Cristian Coré Ramiro. Desde nuestros inicios nuestro trabajo se ha centrado en el análisis estadístico de datos para ayudar a los clubes en la planificación deportiva. Somos una consultora big data que ofrece servicios personalizados para cada cliente y defiende un modelo de gestión mixto y una comunicación constante para acompañar el día a día de las instituciones. Nuestro punto fuerte es la más amplia cobertura disponible en número de torneos profesionales y juveniles. Para más detalles, póngase en contacto con nosotros.

Colaboramos con:

           

Hemos aparecido en: