‘Value goals’: not all goals are worth the same

Category: Team Analysis

With our 'Value Goals' functionality we can measure the value of goals scored by strikers, knowing whether they scored points for their team and what percentage of all their goals scored points.

Published:13/10/2021

Goals, the leitmotiv of football as a game and a vital issue for all football fans, can be measured in many ways through advanced statistics. As a result of the appearance of expected goals (xG) it is possible to measure the effectiveness in a direct way, knowing which strikers are converting with quality or are missing clear chances that by probability should have been goals.

In addition to these probability models, at Driblab we have asked ourselves what is the value of goals as a result for strikers in the top five European leagues since 2016, a scale that we can use in any competition around the world. We will measure this value in relation to the points that strikers have given their teams, as it is not the same to score 23 goals and only four of them have given points or have meant that their team has taken the lead.

Using the total goals, the value goals and the ratio (%) of those value goals over the total, we will find the players who have had the most capacity to score important goals in matches, both at the highest level (Ronaldo, Messi, Lewandowski or Luis Suárez) and in more modest competitive status or with some relative filter that allows us to know how important their goals are even if they are not among the top scorers. To start with, we will define as value goals those goals that help their team to score momentarily or at the end of the match. This includes all non-penalty goals that are the winning goal or those that put your team ahead on the scoreboard.

In this first table we find the ten players who have scored the most goals in the five major leagues since 2016 (excluding European competition), all of them having scored more than 100 goals in the last five seasons: Robert Lewandowski, Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ciro Immobile, Mohamed Salah, Harry Kane, Luis Suárez, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Kylian Mbappé and Romelu Lukaku.

In this second table we have considered those players who have had a good number of goals per game (more than 0.43 goals per game) and who have managed to have a value goal ratio higher than 60% (more than 60% of their goals helped their team to score momentarily or finally). With these relative values, we can measure the value of the goals of players who are not so prolific by position, characteristics or quality of their team but who usually appear with goals of great value, such as Antoine Griezmann, Andrea Bellotti, Gerard Moreno, Alassane Plea or Wout Weghorst.

We are Driblab, a consultancy specialized in football analytics and big data; our work is focused on advising and minimizing risk in professional football decision-making in areas related to talent detection and footballer evaluations. Our database has more than 180,000 players from more than 180 competitions, covering information from all over the world. Here you can learn more about how we work and what we offer.

Autor: Alejandro Arroyo
For Team Analysis we also recommend you:

The machine is back on track

Liverpool’s start to the season is beginning to remind us of the one they had two years ago, to the point where they are outperforming all the attacking statistics.

Tchouaméni is already here

Aurelien Tchouaméni is on course to be one of the most important midfielders in the coming years. We find out what makes him so decisive and why Deschamps has called him up for France.

Driblab, speaker at SIITE

From October 19th to 22nd, Driblab will be present at the first edition of SIITE.

‘Measure your next opponent’: how Álvaro Cervera’s Cádiz is playing

Measuring the opposing team is a fundamental function in the scouts’ day-to-day work. We take a closer look at Cadiz to find out how they play.

Wie gut ist das Modell der erwarteten Tore (xG) von Driblab? (German)

Wir haben mehr als 44000 Schüsse analysiert, um festzustellen, ob das Modell Expected Goals (xG) von Driblab den Wert der Schüsse gut misst. Das Ergebnis bestätigt, dass unser Modell gut ausgewogen ist.

A lightning of Illusion

Rayo Vallecano are not only back in the Primera, they are also back in fashion. With the help of Iraola and Falcao, we analyse the performance of the Vallecano team with data.

Serie A, la rivoluzione silenziosa (Italian)

Che cosa è successo per la Serie A per diventare campioni di Euro 2021 dopo aver fallito la qualificazione per la Coppa del Mondo 2018? Guardiamo l’evoluzione del calcio italiano negli ultimi cinque anni.

Serie A, the silent (r)evolution

What happened for Serie A to become Euro 2021 champions after failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup? We look at the evolution of Italian football over the last five years.

‘Elevens’: discover the best anywhere in the world

We continue to deepen our numerous tools and functionalities. With ‘Elevens’ you will be able to know which players are the best in each league by position.

The revival of Gonçalo Guedes?

After a very irregular season, the moment of Gonçalo Guedes gives reason for hope. We analyze his numbers since the arrival of José Bordalás to the Valencian team.

Driblab

Información corporativa

Somos una empresa con sede en Madrid fundada en 2017 por Salvador Carmona y Cristian Coré Ramiro. Desde nuestros inicios nuestro trabajo se ha centrado en el análisis estadístico de datos para ayudar a los clubes en la planificación deportiva. Somos una consultora big data que ofrece servicios personalizados para cada cliente y defiende un modelo de gestión mixto y una comunicación constante para acompañar el día a día de las instituciones. Nuestro punto fuerte es la más amplia cobertura disponible en número de torneos profesionales y juveniles. Para más detalles, póngase en contacto con nosotros.

Colaboramos con:

           

Hemos aparecido en:


Talk to our speciali