Probability as an analysis is not only indicated to know who can win a match or if one striker is more effective than another according to the clarity of the chances. Using the probability of catching a cross among the thousands that have been produced, we can know if a goalkeeper is intervening when he should and when he should not. Knowing that every cross is different, Driblab developed a metric that parameterised the chances of a cross into the box being the responsibility of the goalkeeper.
This metric caught the attention of Sky Sport Italia, specifically the Football Analyst programme, where they analyse tactics through statistics. By visualising different crosses on video, our – metric gave value to all of them to try to explain how this model works and how it gives merit to those goalkeepers who perform above or below the expected in the so-called Claim Accuracy.
In this video you can see how Mattia Perin, Mike Maignan or Marco Silvestri have a specific percentage of probability of catching the cross and, consequently, decide whether or not to go for it, visualising in two graphs, both above and below these lines, which goalkeepers are being more daring in this World Cup or which ones went for the ball below the expected in the five big leagues last season.
- In this text we explain in depth how this is formed and what we have taken into account to generate these probabilities.
We are Driblab, a consultancy specialized in the statistical analysis of players and teams; our work is focused on advising and minimizing risk in professional football decision-making in areas related to talent detection and footballer evaluations. Our database has more than 200,000 players from more than 180 competitions, covering information from all over the world. Here you can learn more about how we work and what we offer.