Visualizing Liverpool’s problems

Category: Team Analysis

What data best reflects Liverpool's decline? They are not few and they are very obvious.

Published:23/02/2023

It wouldn’t have taken Real Madrid scoring five goals to reveal Liverpool’s problems but, in a way, it exposed them when they had generated just 1.3 expected goals to Jürgen Klopp’s side’s 2.2. That kind of game has become a habit for Liverpool this season and is one of the reasons behind their performance.

Liverpool 22/23: 1.93 xG per 90′ – Opponents: 1.23xG per 90′

Injuries cannot be obviated in this equation, because it is top players who have missed too many games, as is the case with Van Dijk, Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz, but the issue goes beyond that. On the one hand, translating the expected goal dominance over the opposition into goals is costing them their status in the Premiership. In this double graph we see how this season, the expected goals exceed their goals, while last season it was always the other way around, their effectiveness was higher than what they generated. Something that is getting worse in the last ten games, with a difference between the expected and the actual too big.

And that is an indicator that a team is suffering wear and tear, especially mentally, seeing that results are no longer a certainty when chances are missed, even knowing that the scare value of chances is higher this season than last (0.12xG per shot, for 0.11).

If we compare their performance with their opponents, in only three Premiership games did they generate fewer expected goals than their opponents. Liverpool have lost the ability to restart attacks by recovering quickly, suffering many transitions against, which, moreover, are converted into goals much more easily than the ‘red’ team itself.

And it is behind all that appears their rhythm in the pressure. It is no coincidence that Liverpool is in the season, of all those that make up the cycle of Jürgen Klopp (more than 8 seasons), in which they are pressing less. Without making so many differences in this circumstance and without so much effectiveness in attack, the performance line declines and the scoring rate ends up being much lower, even more so in a Premier League where more and more teams are raising the level and wanting to settle in the elite of English football.

We are Driblab, a consultancy specialized in the statistical analysis of players and teams; our work is focused on advising and minimizing risk in professional football decision-making in areas related to talent detection and footballer evaluations. Our database has more than 200,000 players from more than 180 competitions, covering information from all over the world. Here you can learn more about how we work and what we offer.

Autor: Alejandro Arroyo
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